調査範囲は以下の通り

インド総選挙: 経済と政治の将来を展望する
インドは次の総選挙を控えており、政治情勢だけでなく経済の軌道についても大きな賭け
となっている。 この選挙は、ビジネス、産業、海外直接投資（FDI）、経済成長、中間層
の拡大に影響を与えるいくつかの主要政策の方向性を決定する極めて重要な選挙である。

政治情勢と選挙の見通し
インドの総選挙は、ナレンドラ・モディ首相率いる現職人民党（BJP）と野党連合との間
で争われると予想されている。 BJPは歴史的に、規制緩和に重点を置き、国内外の投資家
にとって有利な環境を作り出すという、企業寄りの政策を推進してきました。 T

BJPの強固な基盤とモディ氏の人気により、BJPがもう一期確保できれば、企業寄りの政策
が継続される可能性が大きい。

経済政策と成長
インドは現政権の下、物品サービス税（GST）の導入など大幅な経済改革を行ってきた。
今後もこうした政策の継続により経済成長が促進されると予想されます。 インドの GDP
成長率は世界最高レベルにあり、この成長軌道を維持するには、安定したビジネスに優し
い環境を維持することが重要です。

海外直接投資
経済成長にとっての重要性については広範なコンセンサスが得られていることから、FDI
に対するインドの姿勢は、選挙結果にかかわらず好意的なものであり続ける可能性が高
い。 BJP の継続的な統治は、防衛、小売、その他の分野における FDI のさらなる推進を意
味する可能性が高い

中間層の拡大と社会政策
持続的な経済成長がもたらす大きな影響の 1 つは、インドにおける中間層の拡大です。 こ
の人口動態の変化により、巨大な消費者市場が形成され、国内外の企業にとってますます
魅力的な市場となっています。
結論
インドで今度行われる総選挙は、今後数年間にわたってこの国の経済的、政治的状況を形
作る重要な出来事である。 ビジネスと産業に優しい政策を維持し、海外直接投資を支援
し、経済成長を促進することに重点を置き、インドは世界の経済大国を目指す軌道を継続
する態勢を整えている。 中間層の拡大とそれに伴う消費者需要の高まりがこの見通しをさ
らに強化し、成長と投資の継続的な機会が約束されています。 選挙の結果に関係なく、経
済の安定と成長という基本的な目標は今後もインドの政策課題の最前線にあると思われ
る。

Indian general elections: Looking ahead to the economic and political future
India is about to hold its next general election, and the stakes are high not only for its political
situation but also for its economic trajectory. This is a pivotal election that will determine the
direction of several key policies that will affect business, industry, foreign direct investment (FDI),
economic growth, and the expansion of the middle class.
Political situation and election outlook
India’s general election is expected to be contested between Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a coalition of opposition parties. The BJP has
historically promoted pro-business policies, focusing on deregulation and creating a favorable
environment for domestic and foreign investors. T
Given the BJP’s strong base and Mr. Modi’s popularity, if it can secure another term, its pro-business
policies are likely to continue.

Economic policy and growth
Under the current government, India has undertaken major economic reforms, including the
introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The continuation of these policies is expected to
promote economic growth. India’s GDP growth rate is among the highest in the world, and
maintaining a stable business-friendly environment is critical to sustaining this growth trajectory.

Foreign direct investment
Given the broad consensus on its importance to economic growth, India’s attitude towards FDI is
likely to remain positive regardless of the election outcome. Continued rule of the BJP is likely to
mean a further push for his FDI in defense, retail and other sectors

Expansion of the middle class and social policy
One of the major effects of sustained economic growth is the expansion of India’s middle class. This
demographic shift has created a huge consumer market that is increasingly attractive to domestic and
international businesses.

Conclusion
India’s upcoming general elections are important events that will shape the country’s economic and
political landscape for years to come. By maintaining business- and industry-friendly policies,
supporting foreign direct investment, and focusing on fostering economic growth, India is poised to
continue on its trajectory to become a global economic power. A growing middle class and
associated rising consumer demand further strengthen this outlook, promising continued
opportunities for growth and investment. Regardless of the outcome of the election, the fundamental
goals of economic stability and growth are likely to remain at the forefront of India’s policy agenda.

Opening the door to India’s booming consumer market: a great opportunity for Japanese SMEs

India’s economic landscape is not only evolving; We are moving forward at an unparalleled speed.
Goldman Sachs predicts that India will surpass even the United States to become the world’s second-
largest economy by 2070, rewriting the story of global economic power. India is predicted to become
the world’s second largest consumer market, with consumers increasing from the current 529 million
to 773 million by 2030. This growth is driven not by exports, which is a common trajectory for many
Asian economies, especially China, but by strong domestic demand. This demand is centered on the
middle class, whose income level is rising. The growing middle class is expected to account for
approximately 60% of the population by 2050.

Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have a unique advantage in this dynamic and
rapidly expanding market. Synonymous with quality and innovation, your products are perfectly
aligned with the demands of India’s growing consumer base for premium and distinctive products
across a wide range of categories, from fashion to technology.

The perception that the Indian market is difficult due to economic, human and experiential
limitations is a myth waiting to be debunked. The reality is much more welcoming, with a cost-
effective and low-risk path already being paved by a number of international companies from
Western countries and China who have successfully penetrated and established markets.

To learn more about the opportunities available to your company in the Indian market, please contact
us at mktrsch@gol.com.

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